Jon Wertheim (SI.com):
Novak Djokovic affects Rafael Nadal even when they don´t play Q: Rafael Nadal 0-6 in the third set last week against Andy Murray? What's going on? Is it fatigue at the end of a long year, or a sign of more to come? I'm a huge Rafa fan but have a nagging feeling that his prime days are over (even at his ripe young age). I think his style of play has done him in and an invincible Rafa is a thing of the past. Your thoughts?
-- Kris, Norwalk, Conn.
• So Monday we wrote about the Tokyo final, in the context of Murray's encouraging result. Tennis, though, is a zero sum game and for every victor there is a loser. We could just as easily have written about Nadal and his mystifying play of late. Here's a guy who won three Grand Slams in 2010 and, at the start of the year, looked to be the New King, consolidating his power.
Ten months later? Well, the 25-year-old has slipped to No. 2 in the rankings, which isn't catastrophic. But look closer. He is 0-6 against the No. 1 guy. He's won "only" one major and "only" one Masters 1000 event. A player known for his fight and mental impenetrability, Nadal last week lost a three-setter to Murray, falling painfully short on big points -- the Spaniard was 0-of-4 on break points in the second set and won only four total points in the decisive third.
Historically, Nadal tends to gear down in late summer, all that summer grinding exacting a price. And all players are beaten up and beaten down by this point in the calendar. But Nadal did win two Davis Cup matches the week after the U.S. Open. And he did look fresh in Tokyo -- no player had broken his serve until the final.
What else could it be? I think Nadal is still gobsmacked by Djokovic. Think about Nadal's career. It's been a progression of success starting at a young age. Unlike Roger Federer, there was little in the way of early underachievement or critics growing restless. Starting as a teenager, Nadal ruled clay. He still had baby fat when he helped Spain win the 2004 Davis Cup. A few months later he was French Open champion. There were a few lapses but they were attributable to injury (and his parents' marital strife), which made for some adversity, but it's different from outright losing. While there were defeats along the way, no player "had his number" or created a real matchup problem. Certainly not Federer, whom he routinely beat.
Suddenly, it's 2011, Nadal is coming off a three-Slam year and poised for domination and ... Djokovic, that pesky Serb, turns into a world-beater. He isn't intimidated. He can hang with Nadal from the baseline. The stamina issues are gone. What works so well for Nadal against Federer (the loopy spin to the one-handed backhand; the relentless pressure) doesn't register against Djokovic. Nadal loses a few times and before he knows it, it's six straight matches, including two major finals. The entire balance of power has shifted. In some ways, this must be demoralizing in the extreme, a jarringly new experience. In other ways, I suspect this invigorates Nadal and gives him a real riddle to solve. No one saw this a year ago. But now, his ability to respond to Djokovic will figure heavily in his legacy.
Q: I say Novak Djokovic wins the Grand Slam next year. Think about it. Roger Federer is 30. Rafael Nadal hasn't beaten Djokovic once this year. Andy Murray is not ready for prime time. Djokovic won three this year and the one he didn't win (the French) is on a surface he likes. Mark my words: Novak Djokovic wins all four majors in 2012. What you do you think?
-- Charles H., Chicago
• My magic 8-ball says, "Looks fuzzy. Try again." Who knows? A year ago, you could have said the same thing about Nadal. Then he wins "just" one major in 2011 and loses in seven of 10 finals. There's no question Djokovic rules the roost right now. But so much has to go right to win ALL four of the majors. No bad day at the office. No niggling injuries. No day of catching an opponent in the zone. Could it happen? Sure. You make a good case. When a guys goes W/SF/W/W in the Slams, how do you not take him seriously? But it's hard to outright predict such an unlikely occurrence.
