by Nowitzki.ct » 14 Jan 2013, 12:59
Malo stranih analiza Federerovog kostura:
Roger Federer has the toughest road to the title. If there’s a “Group of Death” in the draw, Federer has found himself in it. He’ll open against flashy Frenchman Benoit Paire — he of of the ridiculous leaping ‘tweener we featured this week — and then could see this: Former No. 4 Nikolay Davydenko, who had a resurgent tournament in Doha last week where he made the final, Bernard Tomic, who hasn’t lost this year, and big-serving Milos Raonic, who pushed Federer deep in to a decisive set in their three previous matches. That’s just to get to the quarterfinals.
Once in the quarters, Federer is projected to face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who famously came back from two sets down to beat Federer at Wimbledon in 2011. An Australian Open finalist in 2008, the dynamic Tsonga has started the season well. Should Federer win there he’ll likely face either Murray or Del Potro. That’s tough for Federer either way, particularly in light of Del Potro’s performance last fall when he beat Federer in Basel and the World Tour Finals.
The good news for Federer is there are questions surrounding each one of these potential opponents. Murray still hasn’t beaten him at a major, Raonic hasn’t been convincing in his warm-ups, and Tomic and Tsonga are just as capable of losing early as they are making a deep run. As for Del Potro, it’s hard to know what to expect from him since he chose to skip the competitive tune-ups.
Federer said he likes the challenge. This is the toughest draw he could have asked for.
Federer’s quarter
This was supposed to be Murray’s quarter, no? He’s the one member of the Big 4 who also seems to be treading shark-infested waters at major tournaments. This time around, however, that burden belongs to none other than Roger Federer. In addition to Tsonga, Gasquet, Raonic, and Haas, the section also boasts Philipp Kohlschreiber, Bernard Tomic, and Nikolay Davyenko (and, for those who still care to recall the events of last summer, Lukas Rosol).
Word for word, ESPN’s programming pitch for its tournament coverage should read as Federer’s projected path to the semis: Benoit Paire in round one (every point of that one is must-see television), Davydenko in round two, Tomic in round three, Raonic in round four, and Tsonga, Gasquet, or Haas in the quarters.
Best first-round matchup — (19) Tommy Haas vs. Jarkko Nieminen
This matchup is four years away from being eligible for the Champions Tour, but for now, it is one of the most enticing encounters of the Australian Open first round. Haas, 34, remained injury free last season and compiled a 31-16 record. Nieminen is coming off a quarterfinal performance in Sydney, where he ultimately fell to Tomic in three competitive sets. Don’t be fooled by Haas’ 3-0 lead in the head-to-head series; all three meetings have been competitive; the last was a 7-6(9), 6-4 victory for Haas at the 2012 Indian Wells Masters.
Best potential second-round matchup – (27) Martin Klizan vs. Bernard Tomic
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Milos Raonic vs. (17) Philipp Kohlschreiber
Possible surprises — There has been and will continue to be plenty of talk about Federer’s tough draw, but the bottom line is this: he isn’t losing anytime soon. He isn’t losing to Paire. He isn’t losing to Davydenko. He isn’t losing to Tomic. He probably isn’t losing to Raonic and he probably isn’t losing to Tsonga. Don’t expect anything out of the ordinary to take place in this quarter; the seeds are too good and the unseeded contingent is not good enough. If a big name goes down early, it will be Tsonga; either to Michael Llodra right at the start or to Haas in the fourth round.
Black and white till the end of days, Gravediggers for all your prayers, Partizan reign to last for aeons.
